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At Basketball Rehab we are obsessed with the NBA draft. The majority of our content covers this area. We pour over video and get an unhealthy level of excitement doing player analysis. It has now been nearly two years since both of these NBA draft's long enough to provide a more clear picture of how each lottery should look.
Be warned there may be some surprises enclosed or even a shock or two.
2018 NBA Draft redraft.
1. Trae Young
He isn't a great defender but his on court impact cannot be disputed. Young provides an estimated 19 wins of impact measured by both EWA and Win shares. The most of anyone in this draft. His 12.5 VORP blows away anyone else in this draft.
2. Luka Doncic
Doncic is a superstar he is clearly better than most of us expected. He is also easily the 2nd most impactful player in this draft. His Win Shares are 4th at about 14 but with a 2nd place VORP of 6.2 and clear superstar impact we make a judgment call and place him 2nd.
3. Shai Gilgeous Alexander
This one surprised me a bit. Ii knew he had star potential but he has clearly been moving closer to getting there sooner rather than later. Shai is 6th in Win Shares but is 3rd in VORP which is our favorite measure of player impact.
4. Deandre Ayton
We hated his disappearing act against Buffalo, worried he wouldn't give a consistent effort and harped about his poor defense but Ayton has flashed star potential thus far.
5. Michael Porter Jr
We went as far as to say we expected him to end up in China due to health concerns and poor defense. So far he is 8th in Wins shares in his draft class and looks like a young star on the rise. We were very wrong about him.
Here is the rest of the 2018 lottery based on a combination of analytical ranking, eye test and our gut.
6. Mitchell Robinson
7. Mikal Bridges
8. Jalen Brunson
9. Robert Williams
10. Donte Divencenzio
11. Landry Shamet
12. Miles Bridges
13. Jaren Jackson Jr
14. Wendell Carter Jr
2019 NBA Draft redraft
1. RJ Barrett
He was number one on our big board and we wouldn't shut up about seeing James Harden 2.0 and clear future superstar. He's finally starting to look the part.
2. Zion Williamson
We still aren't convinced about his health but the talent is clear. If he can stay healthy Zion should be a superstar in the league for a long time.
3. Ja Morant
Clear star level talent and top 3 impact in WS and VORP lands him here.
4. Brandon Clarke
His impact as a high level defender and potential all star is clear. He is 2nd in VORP and WS and would clearly be a top 5 pick in any redraft.
5. Cameron Johnson
I hated this pick. Johnson was 23 and felt the Suns didn't take a big enough swing. In what turned out not to be a very deep draft they proved me very wrong. Johnson is top 5 in this class in VORP and WS and is the perfect role player in Phoenix.
The rest of our 2019 NBA draft lottery is as follows.
6. Matisse Thybuille
7. Keldon Johnson
8. Jaxson Hayes
9. Chuma Okeke
10. Nicolas Claxton
11. Talen Horton Tucker
12. Tyler Herro
13. PJ Washington
14. Rui Hachimura
HM Bol Bol
18th in VORP still love his potential.
The biggest shocks for us were the number of late 1st and early 2nd prospects that ended up having a lottery level impact. Really after the top 5 you could argue that drafting well was more important than drafting high. Did anything surprise you?
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